Special Edition: Travel and Corona Virus
Economic Disaster? Read to the End ...
Disclaimer: This blog does not providing medical advice. Always consult your medical provider for medical advice relative to travel.
Is the Coronavirus real? Yes, and you should take precautions and follow State Department Travel Advisories. It's not "fake news." You can argue whether the response to the disease is justified, or a severe over-reaction. You can argue whether the press coverage is inflammatory or not. I'm not going to waste time arguing, since it won't change governments' reactions or press coverage.
CDC Advisory for Covid-19 (currently): hand-washing; not touching your face; and that higher-risk elderly, immuno-compromised, and those with underlying conditions take extra precautions.
Recent History of Outbreaks
We know Covid-19 IS highly transmissible. It is a coronavirus (which tends to be seasonal, but we don't have sufficient history to know that for sure). Cases are declining in Hubei Province, but is that because of stringent quarantine, or part of seasonality? We don't know. We do know distancing does reduce transmission.
Based on initial incidents, Covid-19 is NOT the most deadly disease. There have been many severe and deadlier outbreaks over recent years. That has not slowed down air travel, cruising, or travel in general.
Still, travel during flu season is always risky. We got sick returning from Hawaii in December, 2012. Luckily, we were fine for 10 days on Oahu and the Big Island, but flying back to California from Maui, the Hawaiian Air jet sounded like the proverbial "TB ward." A few days later we were sick-as-dogs for Christmas (we stayed home and didn't infect the whole family).
Sickness and Travel
Face the facts, people do get sick while traveling. Others get sick before travel but don't want to cancel, and go sick anyway. We have witnessed this many times during winter break. We've been guilty of taking short trips to the coast while sick with colds or sinus infections ourselves. Why do people do that?
If you can wait to travel, it's probably best to delay bookings and deposits. Trip insurance does NOT pay if you're "afraid" something might happen. Insurance contracts (as well as standard cruise contracts) have many exceptions, conditions, contingencies, and exclusions. You will always assume risk, even with insurance.
Quarantine Hell
But it's not just the chance of severe disease or death. The response (exaggerated or justified) has been lengthy, travel-altering quarantines. NOBODY wants to end their trip stuck in a two-week quarantine! Quarantined cruises are a living hell for those trapped on board. Think about it.
Travel despite Seasonal Flu and Other Outbreaks
Despite previous disease outbreaks, travel hasn't stopped. In fact, it has continued to expand and become more popular. Let's look at my travel, for example (table, right).
As you can see, our trips (excluding short car trips) show we traveled despite flu and viruses. Admittedly, since I was a teacher, we traveled mostly during spring break or summer -- with lower seasonal risks.
While true, we were often planning our trips while the flu was raging and news reports were screaming. We always got our flu shots and took usual precautions.
Interesting Note: Even though SARS first peaked in 2003, we were screened with infrared "fever scanners" when we landed in Hong Kong in the summer of 2007. How's that for taking precautions!
(Table note: Flu season often runs from fall thru spring, so the years listed are mostly the first occurrence or identification of the strain.)
Future Travel Game Plans ...
No outbreak continues indefinitely. Seasonal flu is just that; and pandemics usually run their course.
Eventually, you will want to plan more "bucket-list" travel. You can still dream. Eventually, after the Coronavirus subsides, you can think about destinations, travel dates, and bookings, hopefully by mid-year. (China's Covid-19 cases are "reportedly" declining now, if true.)
... and My Predictions
Let's assume this Coronavirus is seasonal (presently, we don't have evidence it is not). Travel will be disrupted for the next several months, probably through June. (Flu season, usually ending by April, can extend through May.)
Disclaimer: This blog does not providing medical advice. Always consult your medical provider for medical advice relative to travel.
Is the Coronavirus real? Yes, and you should take precautions and follow State Department Travel Advisories. It's not "fake news." You can argue whether the response to the disease is justified, or a severe over-reaction. You can argue whether the press coverage is inflammatory or not. I'm not going to waste time arguing, since it won't change governments' reactions or press coverage.
CDC Advisory for Covid-19 (currently): hand-washing; not touching your face; and that higher-risk elderly, immuno-compromised, and those with underlying conditions take extra precautions.
Recent History of Outbreaks
We know Covid-19 IS highly transmissible. It is a coronavirus (which tends to be seasonal, but we don't have sufficient history to know that for sure). Cases are declining in Hubei Province, but is that because of stringent quarantine, or part of seasonality? We don't know. We do know distancing does reduce transmission.
Based on initial incidents, Covid-19 is NOT the most deadly disease. There have been many severe and deadlier outbreaks over recent years. That has not slowed down air travel, cruising, or travel in general.
Still, travel during flu season is always risky. We got sick returning from Hawaii in December, 2012. Luckily, we were fine for 10 days on Oahu and the Big Island, but flying back to California from Maui, the Hawaiian Air jet sounded like the proverbial "TB ward." A few days later we were sick-as-dogs for Christmas (we stayed home and didn't infect the whole family).
Sickness and Travel
Face the facts, people do get sick while traveling. Others get sick before travel but don't want to cancel, and go sick anyway. We have witnessed this many times during winter break. We've been guilty of taking short trips to the coast while sick with colds or sinus infections ourselves. Why do people do that?
- They don't want to lose money.
- They only have a certain window of dates to travel (rescheduling is difficult or impossible).
If you can wait to travel, it's probably best to delay bookings and deposits. Trip insurance does NOT pay if you're "afraid" something might happen. Insurance contracts (as well as standard cruise contracts) have many exceptions, conditions, contingencies, and exclusions. You will always assume risk, even with insurance.
Quarantine Hell
But it's not just the chance of severe disease or death. The response (exaggerated or justified) has been lengthy, travel-altering quarantines. NOBODY wants to end their trip stuck in a two-week quarantine! Quarantined cruises are a living hell for those trapped on board. Think about it.
- Even if not sick, you're miserable.
- Bills are stacking up in the mail.
- Family members are missing you.
- Your job (or semester) may be in jeopardy.
Travel despite Seasonal Flu and Other Outbreaks
Despite previous disease outbreaks, travel hasn't stopped. In fact, it has continued to expand and become more popular. Let's look at my travel, for example (table, right).
As you can see, our trips (excluding short car trips) show we traveled despite flu and viruses. Admittedly, since I was a teacher, we traveled mostly during spring break or summer -- with lower seasonal risks.
While true, we were often planning our trips while the flu was raging and news reports were screaming. We always got our flu shots and took usual precautions.
Interesting Note: Even though SARS first peaked in 2003, we were screened with infrared "fever scanners" when we landed in Hong Kong in the summer of 2007. How's that for taking precautions!
(Table note: Flu season often runs from fall thru spring, so the years listed are mostly the first occurrence or identification of the strain.)
Future Travel Game Plans ...
No outbreak continues indefinitely. Seasonal flu is just that; and pandemics usually run their course.
Eventually, you will want to plan more "bucket-list" travel. You can still dream. Eventually, after the Coronavirus subsides, you can think about destinations, travel dates, and bookings, hopefully by mid-year. (China's Covid-19 cases are "reportedly" declining now, if true.)
... and My Predictions
Let's assume this Coronavirus is seasonal (presently, we don't have evidence it is not). Travel will be disrupted for the next several months, probably through June. (Flu season, usually ending by April, can extend through May.)
- Travel bans for business & conferences will continue through April or May.
- Large events will be cancelled (as SXSW 2020); and some may be rescheduled (as Coachella Music Festival 2020).
- In the near term, I expect SIGNIFICANT layoffs within travel agencies, tour companies, cruise lines, hotels, destination attractions, etc. -- both domestically, and in the foreign countries most affected.
- Airlines will suspend more flight routes. Net effect: many surplus workers will be furloughed or laid off.
- Once closed (or large employee layoffs occur), venues and events will be slow to reopen or reschedule.
- Some cruise lines will forfeit ships due to loan default.
- Many travel companies will not survive -- especially smaller firms; and larger firms with heavy debt (like UK's Thomas Cook, which failed in September 2019).
- There will be a U.S. Recession (defined as two or more Quarters of declining GDP).
- Global trade slowdown will affect all economies, causing Recession in many countries. Severity will be felt most in hot-spot areas, but will vary by many factors. (If you want detailed economic scenarios, see McKinsey & Company's analysis.)
Payoff?
Who knows, if you wait, you may get some real bargains from travel vendors!
Those still in business, that is! See my website: https://sites.google.com/view/mindfultraveler/
Who knows, if you wait, you may get some real bargains from travel vendors!
Those still in business, that is! See my website: https://sites.google.com/view/mindfultraveler/
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